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[[File:Indian Elections 2004 Map.png|right|300px]]
The [[2004 Indian general election|2004 general elections]] defied the predictions made by pre-poll predictions and exit polls and allowed the newly formed UPA alliance led by [[Sonia Gandhi]], to come to power. This election also saw the rise of marginalized parties like the left, to join forces with the opposition, which led to a major realignment in [[social]] and [[political]] power.<br />
Though pre-poll predictions were for an overwhelming majority for the BJP, the exit polls (immediately after the elections and before the counting began) predicted a [[hung parliament]]. However, even the exit polls could only indicate the general trend and nowhere close to the final figures. There is also the general perception that as soon as the BJP started realising that events might not proceed entirely in its favour, it changed the focus of its campaign from India Shining to issues of stability. The Congress, who was regarded as "old-fashioned" by the ruling BJP, was largely backed by poor, rural, lower-caste and minority voters that did not participate in the economic boom of previous years that created a large wealthy middle class and thus achieved its overwhelming victory.
<br />
The reverses in the pre-poll predictions are ascribed to various reasons depending on the point of view.
* People were more concerned about issues of their immediate environment such as [[water scarcity]], drought, etc., than national issues.
* The anti-incumbency factor was at work for the BJP allies.
{{clear}}

==State by State analysis==

===Andhra Pradesh===
{{See also|Indian general election in Andhra Pradesh, 2004}}
{| class="wikitable" border="1" style = "float: left; width:300px"
|+ Voting Pattern in Andhra Pradesh
! Social Background
! [[United Progressive Alliance|INC+]]
! [[National Democratic Alliance (India)|TDP+]]
|-
| colspan = "3" align = "center" |'''Gender'''
|-
| Male
| align = "center" |'''47%'''
| align = "center" |42%
|-
| Female
| align = "center" |'''54%'''
| align = "center" |41%
|-
| colspan = "3" align = "center" |'''Social Class'''
|-
| Poor
| align = "center" |'''49%'''
| align = "center" |43%
|-
| Very Poor
| align = "center" |'''50%'''
| align = "center" |41%
|-
| colspan = "3" align = "center" |'''OBCs'''
|-
| [[Peasant]] [[Other Backward Classes|OBCs]]
| align = "center" |45%
| align = "center" |'''48%'''
|-
| [[Other Backward Classes|Lower OBCs]]
| align = "center" |'''47%'''
| align = "center" |45%
|-
| colspan = "3" align = "center" |'''Rural Classes'''
|-
| [[Farmers]]
| align = "center" |41%
| align = "center" |'''49%'''
|-
| Agricultural workers
| align = "center" |'''51%'''
| align = "center" |41%
|-
| Young voters
| align = "center" |'''57%'''
| align = "center" |38%
|-
|}
{{clear}}
'''Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis'''<ref name = VoteshareAndhra>{{cite news | url = http://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/stories/2004052000220300.htm |title = Arithmetic and anti-incumbency knocked Naidu out | publisher = [[The Hindu]] | date = May 20, 2004 | accessdate = 2009-07-20 | location=Chennai, India}}</ref>

===Karnataka===
{| class="wikitable" border="1" style = "float: left; width:400px"
|+ Voting pattern in Karnataka<br />
! Category
! [[Indian National Congress|INC]]
! [[National Democratic Alliance (India)|BJP+]]
! [[Janata Dal (Secular)|JD(S)]]
! Others
|-
| [[Forward caste|Upper caste]]
| align = "center" |23%
| align = "center" |'''65%'''
| align = "center" |7%
| align = "center" |5%
|-
| [[Vokkaliga]]
| align = "center" |38%
| align = "center" |18%
| align = "center" |'''43%'''
| align = "center" |1%
|-
| [[Lingayat]]
| align = "center" |30%
| align = "center" |'''60%'''
| align = "center" |5%
| align = "center" |5%
|-
| [[Other Backward Classes|OBCs]]
| align = "center" |35%
| align = "center" |'''36%'''
| align = "center" |23%
| align = "center" |6%
|-
| [[Dalit]]
| align = "center" |'''45%'''
| align = "center" |32%
| align = "center" |8%
| align = "center" |16%
|-
| [[Adivasi]]
| align = "center" |29%
| align = "center" |'''35%'''
| align = "center" |'''35%'''
| align = "center" |2%
|-
| [[Islam in India|Muslims]]
| align = "center" |'''55%'''
| align = "center" |19%
| align = "center" |21%
| align = "center" |5%
|-
| Others
| align = "center" |'''39%'''
| align = "center" |37%
| align = "center" |15%
| align = "center" |9%
|-
|+ Considerable dissatisfaction with the Anthony government
! Category
! Deteriorated
! Same as before
! Improved
! No opinion
|-
| Corruption
| align = "center" |'''49%'''
| align = "center" |26%
| align = "center" |11%
| align = "center" |13%
|-
| Drinking water
| align = "center" |'''44%'''
| align = "center" |26%
| align = "center" |24%
| align = "center" |5%
|-
| Uninterrupted power supply
| align = "center" |'''39%'''
| align = "center" |27%
| align = "center" |28%
| align = "center" |4%
|-
|}
{{clear}}
{{See also|Indian general election in Karnataka, 2004}}
'''Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis'''<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/stories/2004052000400400.htm | location=Chennai, India | work=The Hindu | title=A clear case of ticket-splitting in Karnataka | date=2004-05-20}}</ref>

===Kerala===
{| class="wikitable" border="1" style = "float: left; width:400px"
|+ Voting pattern in Kerala<br />
! Category
! [[Left Democratic Front (Kerala)|LDF]]
! [[United Democratic Front (India)|UDF]]
! [[Bharatiya Janata Party|BJP]]
|-
| [[Forward caste|Hindu upper castes]]
| align = "center" |'''40%'''
| align = "center" |37%
| align = "center" |18%
|-
| [[Nair]]s
| align = "center" |'''41%'''
| align = "center" |29%
| align = "center" |27%
|-
| [[Ezhavas]]
| align = "center" |'''59%'''
| align = "center" |22%
| align = "center" |18%
|-
| [[Other Backward Classes|OBCs]]
| align = "center" |'''49%'''
| align = "center" |36%
| align = "center" |13%
|-
| [[Dalit]]s
| align = "center" |'''71%'''
| align = "center" |15%
| align = "center" |10%
|-
| [[Muslims]]
| align = "center" |39%
| align = "center" |'''58%'''
| align = "center" |2%
|-
| [[Christians]]
| align = "center" |28%
| align = "center" |'''64%'''
| align = "center" |2%
|-
|+ Considerable dissatisfaction with the Anthony government
! Category
! Deteriorated
! Same as before
! Improved
! No opinion
|-
| Drinking water
| align = "center" |'''49%'''
| align = "center" |32%
| align = "center" |16%
| align = "center" |3%
|-
| PDS
| align = "center" |38%
| align = "center" |'''42%'''
| align = "center" |14%
| align = "center" |6%
|-
| Public health
| align = "center" |27%
| align = "center" |'''43%'''
| align = "center" |23%
| align = "center" |7%
|-
| Education
| align = "center" |23%
| align = "center" |31%
| align = "center" |'''38%'''
| align = "center" |7%
|-
| Electricity
| align = "center" |31%
| align = "center" |'''44%'''
| align = "center" |19%
| align = "center" |6%
|-
| Employment
| align = "center" |'''50%'''
| align = "center" |32%
| align = "center" |13%
| align = "center" |5%
|-
| Agriculture
| align = "center" |'''59%'''
| align = "center" |22%
| align = "center" |13%
| align = "center" |6%
|-
| Industries
| align = "center" |'''40%'''
| align = "center" |34%
| align = "center" |15%
| align = "center" |11%
|-
|}
{{clear}}
{{See also|Indian general election in Kerala, 2004}}
'''Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis'''<ref>{{cite news| url=http://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/stories/2004052000230300.htm | location=Chennai, India | work=The Hindu | title=Kerala bucks the national trend, once again | date=2004-05-20}}</ref>

===Tamil Nadu===
{| class="wikitable" border="1" style = "float: left; width:300px"
|+ Voting Pattern in Tamil Nadu
! Category
! [[Democratic Progressive Alliance|DMK+]]
! [[National Democratic Alliance (India)|AIADMK+]]
! Others
|-
| colspan = "4" align = "center" |'''Gender'''
|-
| [[Male]]
| align = "center" |'''54%'''
| align = "center" |32%
| align = "center" |14%
|-
| [[Female]]
| align = "center" |'''49%'''
| align = "center" |39%
| align = "center" |12%
|-
| colspan = "4" align = "center" |'''Locality'''
|-
| [[Rural]]
| align = "center" |'''50%'''
| align = "center" |35%
| align = "center" |15%
|-
| [[urban area|Urban]]
| align = "center" |'''57%'''
| align = "center" |36%
| align = "center" |7%
|-
| colspan = "4" align = "center" |'''Social class'''
|-
| Very poor
| align = "center" |'''44%'''
| align = "center" |37%
| align = "center" |17%
|-
| Poor
| align = "center" |'''55%'''
| align = "center" |31%
| align = "center" |14%
|-
| Lower middle
| align = "center" |'''57%'''
| align = "center" |37%
| align = "center" |6%
|-
| Middle
| align = "center" |'''51%'''
| align = "center" |39%
| align = "center" |10%
|-
| colspan = "4" align = "center" |'''Caste'''
|-
| [[Forward caste|Upper caste]]
| align = "center" |33%
| align = "center" |'''54%'''
| align = "center" |13%
|-
| [[Mukkulathor|Thevar]]
| align = "center" |'''50%'''
| align = "center" |47%
| align = "center" |3%
|-
| [[Vanniyars]]
| align = "center" |'''61%'''
| align = "center" |33%
| align = "center" |6%
|-
| [[Chettiar|Chettiyars]]
| align = "center" |'''47%'''
| align = "center" |30%
| align = "center" |23%
|-
| [[Gounder]]s
| align = "center" |'''57%'''
| align = "center" |33%
| align = "center" |10%
|-
| [[Nadar (caste)|Nadar]]s
| align = "center" |'''57%'''
| align = "center" |36%
| align = "center" |7%
|-
| [[Other Backward Classes|Lower OBCs]]
| align = "center" |'''55%'''
| align = "center" |33%
| align = "center" |12%
|-
| Chekkliyars, [[Pallar]]s, etc.
| align = "center" |'''39%'''
| align = "center" |38%
| align = "center" |23%
|-
| [[Dalits|other Dalits]]
| align = "center" |'''40%'''
| align = "center" |37%
| align = "center" |23%
|-
| [[Islam in India|Muslims]]
| align = "center" |'''78%'''
| align = "center" |11%
| align = "center" |11%
|-
| colspan = "4" align = "center" |'''Tell me how good each of the leaders are for Tamil Nadu...'''
|-
|+ Karunanidhi rated better than Jayalalithaa
! Rating
! [[M. Karunanidhi]]
! [[J. Jayalalithaa]]
|-
| Bad
| align = "center" |13%
| align = "center" |'''31%'''
|-
| Average
| align = "center" |31%
| align = "center" |'''33%'''
|-
| Good
| align = "center" |'''29%'''
| align = "center" |17%
|-
| Very good
| align = "center" |'''22%'''
| align = "center" |14%
|-
| Do not know
| align = "center" |'''5%'''
| align = "center" |'''5%'''
|-
|}
{{clear}}
{{See also|Indian general election in Tamil Nadu, 2004}}
'''Source: NES Election 2004 Analysis'''<ref>{{cite news|title=The Hindu : State by State : Alliance effect, swing factor propelled DPA victory |author=Thsks |url=http://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/stories/2004052000180300.htm |archiveurl=https://www.webcitation.org/5iTJ5MvuM?url=http://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/stories/2004052000180300.htm |archivedate=2009-07-23 |url-status=live |accessdate=2009-07-20 |location=Chennai, India |date=2004-05-20 }}</ref>

==References==
{{reflist}}

==External links==
* [http://www.hindu.com/elections2004/verdict2004/ Verdict 2004]

{{Indian general election analysis}}

{{DEFAULTSORT:2004 Indian General Election Analysis By The Hindu}}

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2004 Indian general election analysis - Revision history

MetaBOT at 16:35, 8 July 2023