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The 2018 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2018, along with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Joe Donnelly sought re-election to a second term, facing Republican businessman and former state representative Mike Braun and Libertarian Party nominee Lucy Brenton. Braun defeated Donnelly in the general election by a margin of 6 percent.
In 2017, Politico described the race as "possibly the GOP's best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats" in the 2018 elections.[1] The primary election was held on May 8, 2018.[2] In October 2018, RealClearPolitics rated the race a toss-up between the Democratic and Republican nominees, with the Libertarian receiving a poll average of 6%.[3]
Background
In 2012, Joe Donnelly was elected to the Senate with 50% of the vote to Republican nominee Richard Mourdock's 44%. In the 2016 presidential election, Republican nominee Donald Trump won Indiana with about 56.5% of the vote to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton's 37.5%.[4][5]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Joe Donnelly, incumbent U.S. Senator[6]
Withdrew
Endorsements
Results
Template:Election box begin no change Template:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Template:Election box total no change Template:Election box end
Republican primary
Candidates
Nominee
- Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative[9][10]
Eliminated in the primary election
- Luke Messer, U.S. Representative[11]
- Todd Rokita, U.S. Representative[12][13][14]
Declined
- Jim Banks, U.S. Representative[15]
- Susan Brooks, U.S. Representative (endorsed Luke Messer)[13][16]
- Mike Delph, state senator (endorsed Todd Rokita)[12][17]
- Jackie Walorski, U.S. Representative[18][19][20]
Withdrawn
- Terry Henderson, businessman[21][22] (endorsed Mike Braun)[23]
- Andy Horning, Libertarian nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and Libertarian nominee for IN-08 in 2014[24][25]
- Mark Hurt, attorney and former congressional aide[26][27][28][29]
- Andrew Takami, director of Purdue Polytechnic New Albany[30][31] (endorsed Luke Messer)[32]
Endorsements
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Luke Messer |
Todd Rokita |
Mike Braun |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strategic National (R) | May 5–6, 2018 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 29% | 28% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | – | – |
| Gravis Marketing Template:Webarchive | April 6–11, 2018 | 280 | ± 5.9% | 13% | 16% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 26% | – | Template:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 45% |
| GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) | January 6–9, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 9% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 24% | 9% | – | Template:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 58% |
| GS Strategy Group (R-Rokita) | July 16–18, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 20% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 28% | – | – | Template:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 51% |
| 14% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 21% | 11% | – | Template:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 55% | ||||
| OnMedia (R-Messer) Template:Webarchive | July 10–12, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.8% | 23% | 23% | 2% | 7%Template:Efn | Template:Party shading/Undecided align=center| 45% |
Results
Template:Election box begin no change Template:Election box winning candidate with party link no change Template:Election box candidate with party link no change Template:Election box candidate with party link no change Template:Election box total no change Template:Election box end
Independent
Candidates
Declared
- James Johnson, Jr.[33]
General election
Candidates
- Mike Braun, businessman and former state representative (R)
- Lucy Brenton (L)
- Joe Donnelly, incumbent (D)
- James Johnson, Jr. (I)
Debates
- Complete video of debate, October 8, 2018
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[34] | Template:USRaceRating | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[35] | Template:USRaceRating | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[36] | Template:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| CNN[37] | Template:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[38] | Template:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[39] | Template:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[40] | Template:Sort | November 5, 2018 |
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Template:Party shading/Democratic|Joe Donnelly (D) | $16,100,528 | $13,872,981 | $2,321,981 |
| Template:Party shading/Republican|Mike Braun (R) | $16,964,706 | $15,576,842 | $1,387,861 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[41] | |||
Endorsements
Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box Template:Endorsements box
Polling
- Graphical summary
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Donnelly (D) |
Mike Braun (R) |
Lucy Brenton (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 41% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 42% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 42% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 43% | – | – | – |
| HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | – | – | – |
| Fox News | October 27–30, 2018 | 722 LV | ± 3.5% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 9% |
| 852 RV | ± 3.0% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 38% | 6% | 2% | 11% | ||
| HarrisX Template:Webarchive | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | – | – |
| NBC News/Marist | October 24–28, 2018 | 496 LV | ± 5.5% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 45% | 42% | 7% | <1% | 5% |
| Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 46% | – | 2% | 5% | ||||
| 800 RV | ± 4.2% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 40% | 9% | <1% | 7% | ||
| Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 47% | 45% | – | 2% | 7% | ||||
| Cygnal (R) | October 26–27, 2018 | 505 | ± 4.4% | 46% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | – | 3% | 2% |
| YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 975 | ± 3.7% | 43% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 46% | 3% | 0% | 8% |
| Mason Strategies (R) | October 15–20, 2018 | 600 | ± 3.9% | 43% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | 3% | – | 7% |
| American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | October 14–17, 2018 | 800 | – | 40% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 7% | – | 5% |
| SurveyUSA | October 12–16, 2018 | 816 | ± 4.6% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | 40% | 8% | – | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing | October 12–16, 2018 | 377 | ± 5.1% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 40% | 7% | – | 10% |
| Vox Populi Polling | October 13–15, 2018 | 783 | ± 3.5% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 55% | 45% | – | – | – |
| American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | October 7–10, 2018 | 800 | – | 40% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 44% | 7% | – | 7% |
| American Viewpoint (R-Braun) | September 30 – October 3, 2018 | 800 | – | 39% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 43% | 7% | – | 5% |
| Fox News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 695 LV | ± 3.5% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 9% |
| 806 RV | ± 3.5% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 41% | 40% | 6% | 1% | 10% | ||
| Ipsos | September 12–20, 2018 | 1,181 | ± 3.0% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 43% | – | 3% | 8% |
| Fox News | September 8–11, 2018 | 677 LV | ± 3.5% | 43% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 45% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
| 804 RV | ± 3.5% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 42% | 41% | 4% | 1% | 10% | ||
| NBC News/Marist | August 26–29, 2018 | 576 LV | ± 5.0% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 44% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 6% |
| Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 49% | 43% | – | 2% | 7% | ||||
| 816 RV | ± 4.2% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 43% | 40% | 8% | 1% | 8% | ||
| Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 48% | 42% | – | 2% | 9% | ||||
| Trafalgar Group (R) | July 31 – August 7, 2018 | 1,420 | ± 2.6% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 51% | 39% | – | – | 11% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 952 | ± 5.0% | 47% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 49% | – | – | 4% |
| Gravis Marketing | May 10–15, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 46% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 47% | – | – | 7% |
- with Todd Rokita
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Donnelly (D) |
Todd Rokita (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing Template:Webarchive | April 6–11, 2018 | 411 | ± 4.8% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 50% | 32% | 18% |
- with Luke Messer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Donnelly (D) |
Luke Messer (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing Template:Webarchive | April 6–11, 2018 | 411 | ± 4.8% | Template:Party shading/Democratic align=center| 46% | 36% | 18% |
- with generic Republican
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Donnelly (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 1,809 | ± 3.8% | 45% | Template:Party shading/Republican align=center| 51% | 4% |
Results
On November 6, 2018, Braun won the general election.[42] He swept southern Indiana, the exurbs of Indianapolis, and most other rural areas in the state. Donnelly ran well behind his 2012 vote totals, winning only in Indianapolis, the university centers (Bloomington, Terre Haute, West Lafayette, South Bend), and the suburbs of Chicago in Northwest Indiana.[43]
Template:Election box begin Template:Election box winning candidate with party link Template:Election box candidate with party link Template:Election box candidate with party link Template:Election box write-in with party link Template:Election box total Template:Election box gain with party link no swing Template:Election box end
By congressional district
Braun won 6 of 9 congressional districts. Donnelly won one held by a republican
Voter Demographics
| Demographic subgroup | Template:Party shading/Democratic | Donnelly | Template:Party shading/Republican | Braun | No Answer |
% of Voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 40 | 57 | 3 | 49 |
| Women | 49 | 46 | 5 | 51 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–29 years old | 48 | 45 | 7 | 13 |
| 30–44 years old | 49 | 43 | 8 | 20 |
| 45–64 years old | 44 | 54 | 3 | 39 |
| 65 and older | 41 | 57 | 1 | 28 |
| Race | ||||
| White | 40 | 56 | 4 | 86 |
| Black | 88 | 11 | 1 | 8 |
| Latino | 71 | 22 | 6 | 3 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Race by gender | ||||
| White men | 35 | 62 | 3 | 42 |
| White women | 44 | 51 | 5 | 44 |
| Black men | 82 | 15 | 2 | 4 |
| Black women | 95 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| Latino men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Latina women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Education | ||||
| High school or less | 40 | 56 | 4 | 23 |
| Some college education | 40 | 54 | 6 | 26 |
| Associate degree | 41 | 55 | 4 | 13 |
| Bachelor's degree | 46 | 51 | 3 | 22 |
| Advanced degree | 61 | 36 | 2 | 16 |
| Education and race | ||||
| White college graduates | 49 | 48 | 3 | 34 |
| White no college degree | 33 | 62 | 5 | 53 |
| Non-white college graduates | 80 | 19 | 2 | 4 |
| Non-white no college degree | 76 | 20 | 4 | 10 |
| Whites by education and gender | ||||
| White women with college degrees | 57 | 39 | 4 | 17 |
| White women without college degrees | 36 | 59 | 6 | 27 |
| White men with college degrees | 41 | 57 | 2 | 17 |
| White men without college degrees | 31 | 65 | 4 | 26 |
| Non-whites | 77 | 20 | 3 | 14 |
| Income | ||||
| Under $30,000 | 49 | 44 | 8 | 15 |
| $30,000–49,999 | 46 | 49 | 4 | 23 |
| $50,000–99,999 | 44 | 55 | 2 | 35 |
| $100,000–199,999 | 44 | 52 | 4 | 22 |
| Over $200,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 5 |
| Party ID | ||||
| Democrats | 92 | 6 | 2 | 29 |
| Republicans | 8 | 90 | 2 | 39 |
| Independents | 47 | 44 | 9 | 31 |
| Party by gender | ||||
| Democratic men | 92 | 6 | 2 | 12 |
| Democratic women | 93 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| Republican men | 8 | 91 | 1 | 19 |
| Republican women | 8 | 90 | 2 | 20 |
| Independent men | 42 | 52 | 7 | 18 |
| Independent women | 55 | 33 | 12 | 13 |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 86 | 8 | 6 | 20 |
| Moderates | 59 | 37 | 5 | 40 |
| Conservatives | 10 | 88 | 2 | 40 |
| Marital status | ||||
| Married | 43 | 54 | 3 | 61 |
| Unmarried | 51 | 46 | 3 | 39 |
| Gender by marital status | ||||
| Married men | 38 | 60 | 2 | 31 |
| Married women | 48 | 49 | 3 | 30 |
| Unmarried men | 42 | 53 | 5 | 19 |
| Unmarried women | 61 | 39 | 1 | 20 |
| First-time midterm election voter | ||||
| Yes | 41 | 53 | 6 | 15 |
| No | 46 | 51 | 3 | 85 |
| Most important issue facing the country | ||||
| Health care | 70 | 26 | 4 | 41 |
| Immigration | 10 | 85 | 5 | 27 |
| Economy | 31 | 66 | 3 | 21 |
| Gun policy | 66 | 31 | 3 | 8 |
| Area type | ||||
| Urban | 63 | 33 | 4 | 31 |
| Suburban | 44 | 53 | 3 | 44 |
| Rural | 37 | 58 | 5 | 25 |
| Source: CNN[44] | ||||
Notes
References
- ↑ Missouri's $10M man. Politico(August 14, 2017). Retrieved December 23, 2017.
- ↑ United States Senate election in Indiana, 2018. Retrieved December 23, 2017.
- ↑ RealClearPolitics - Election 2018 - Indiana Senate - Braun vs. Donnelly vs. Brenton. realclearpolitics.com. Retrieved 24 October 2018.
- ↑ Indiana Election Results 2016. The New York Times(August 1, 2017).
- ↑ Secretary of State : Election Division: Election Results. in.gov.
- ↑ Hanscom to Manage Sen. Donnelly Reelect. WTCA(January 7, 2017). Retrieved January 21, 2017.
- ↑ VOTE MARTIN DEL RIO - committee overview - FEC.gov. FEC.gov. Retrieved 2017-10-25.
- ↑ Democrat ends US Senate bid - Political notebook - Journal Gazette. journalgazette.net.
- ↑ Braun set for U.S. Senate run. Washington Times-Herald(August 2, 2017). Retrieved August 8, 2017.
- ↑ Businessman Makes Indiana Senate Primary Three-Person Race(6 November 2017).
- ↑ Indiana Rep. Luke Messer Running for Senate(26 July 2017). Retrieved 26 July 2017.
- ↑ 12.0 12.1 In light of @SusanWBrooks passing on #insen. Twitter(January 31, 2017). Retrieved February 3, 2017.
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 Brooks won't challenge Donnelly for U.S. Senate seat, Groppe, Maureen(January 31, 2017). Retrieved January 31, 2017.
- ↑ The Latest: Rokita to Formally Announce Indiana Senate Bid. The New York Times(August 8, 2017). Retrieved August 8, 2017.
- ↑ Indiana Headed for Another Member-on-Member Senate Primary. Roll Call(March 23, 2017). Retrieved March 24, 2017.
- ↑ Rep. Brooks endorses Messer for Senate - Political notebook - Journal Gazette. journalgazette.net.
- ↑ Rokita announces with Delph support, Howey, Brian A.(August 10, 2017). Retrieved August 10, 2017.
- ↑ Here's how big Walorski's win was. South Bend Tribune(November 27, 2016). Retrieved November 28, 2016.
- ↑ Republican Gender Gap Could Grow in the House. Roll Call(November 28, 2016). Retrieved November 28, 2016.
- ↑ Jackie Walorski files for re-election. ABC 57 News. Retrieved 7 February 2018.
- ↑ Republicans jockey to take on Donnelly in 2018. Indianapolis Business Journal(April 8, 2017). Retrieved April 11, 2017.
- ↑ Henderson quits U.S. Senate race. The Journal Gazette(November 13, 2017). Retrieved November 14, 2017.
- ↑ MIKE BRAUN EARNS KEY ENDORSEMENT(February 8, 2018).
- ↑ Horning for Senate. IndyPolitics.org. Retrieved 8 December 2017.
- ↑ 5 area state legislators facing primary challengers - Local politics - Journal Gazette. journalgazette.net. Retrieved February 10, 2018.
- ↑ Kokomo lawyer Mark Hurt announces US Senate bid. News and Tribune(February 1, 2017). Retrieved February 3, 2017.
- ↑ Kokomo attorney Hurt, citing FedEx troubles and relocating residents, falls short of required signatures for candidacy, Tribune, George Myers Kokomo.
- ↑ Mark Hurt on Twitter.
- ↑ Mark Hurt on Twitter.
- ↑ Purdue Polytechnic director Andrew.
- ↑ Andrew Takami on Twitter. Twitter.
- ↑ Messer Endorsed By Former Senate Candidate Andrew Takami(April 9, 2018). Retrieved April 11, 2018.
- ↑ Candidate list. in.gov. Retrieved April 6, 2018.
- ↑ 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ↑ 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ↑ 2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings. Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 11, 2017.
- ↑ Key Races: Senate. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- ↑ Battle for the Senate 2018. Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- ↑ Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings. Daily Kos(June 5, 2018).
- ↑ 2018 Senate Power Rankings. Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
- ↑ Campaign finance data. Retrieved October 31, 2018.
- ↑ Indiana Election Results. CNN(November 9, 2018).
- ↑ Why Indiana Democrats are flailing and how they might find a road back. Indianapolis Star. Retrieved 13 November 2018.
- ↑ Georgia Gubernatorial election exit poll. CNN. Retrieved April 1, 2019.
External links
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
- GOP Primary Debate, February 20, 2018
- Official campaign websites